Smarter use of electricity grids could save Europe as much as €10.6 billion in future grid infrastructure investments, while at the same time creating the conditions for a faster transition to e-mobility. This is according to a detailed study conducted by Siemens, which shows that significant savings could be achieved through more efficient use of existing grid capacity as the number of electric vehicles continues to grow rapidly.
The study was jointly commissioned by EIT Urban Mobility, ChargeUp Europe and ACEA. According to its findings, approximately €24.7 billion in investments in Europe’s electricity distribution grids would be required by 2030 to support the expected growth in the number of electric vehicles. By implementing intelligent management of the load generated by EV charging, the required investment could be reduced to approximately €14.1 billion.
The study, entitled “Electricity Grids in Europe”, assesses how the expected growth in battery-electric passenger cars and light commercial vehicles could affect electricity distribution grids across the EU27 and three European Economic Area (EEA) countries. Based on six urban archetypes, the analysis was applied to 64 urban centres to assess how investment, digitalisation and flexibility can prepare Europe’s electricity grids for the transition to zero-emission mobility in the most efficient and cost-effective way.
Particular attention is given to managing the load generated by electric vehicles. This involves controlling charging power in near real time in order to prevent grid overload during periods of peak electricity demand, supported by the necessary metering and communication infrastructure.
Combined with grid digitalisation, smart charging enables better use of existing capacity and reduces the need for physical grid reinforcement, while supporting the reliable integration of millions of electric vehicles. However, the study emphasises that such solutions cannot completely eliminate the need for further investment in grid infrastructure.
The uptake of electric vehicles is expected to accelerate in the coming years. According to Siemens’ model, by 2030 battery-electric vehicles could account for 27.3% of the passenger car fleet in Sweden, 15.7% in Germany, 4.6% in Italy, 4.5% in Spain and 2.5% in Poland. This represents an increase of between 3.4 and 5.3 times compared with 2024 levels.
Even faster electrification is expected in the commercial transport segment in certain markets. For light commercial vehicles, the share of battery-electric vehicles is projected to reach 22.7% in Sweden, 9.1% in Germany and 5.9% in Poland, while Poland’s fleet of electric delivery vehicles could increase almost tenfold.
As logistics companies increasingly electrify their fleets in order to meet climate targets and improve air quality in cities, ensuring sufficient electricity grid capacity for depot charging and commercial vehicle charging will become increasingly important.
The analysis also shows that where and when vehicles are charged has a significant impact on local grid demand. By modelling charging at home, at the workplace, at public charging points, while travelling and at depots, the study estimates that by 2030 around 55–62% of electric vehicle owners in the cities analysed will have access to home charging. This further highlights the importance of low-voltage distribution networks in the electrification of European transport.
Among the study’s key findings are:
• Across the 64 urban centres analysed, the number of battery-electric vehicles is expected to increase 3.8-fold by 2030, meaning that each of them will require some degree of distribution grid reinforcement.
• The greatest pressure is expected on low-voltage networks – as much as 77.7% of investment in physical grid reinforcement relates to this level, primarily due to residential EV charging.
• Investment requirements vary significantly across Europe. Central Europe is expected to account for the largest share, followed by the Nordic countries, Eastern Europe and Southern Europe.
• Cities with fewer opportunities for home charging will rely more heavily on public charging infrastructure, making it essential to coordinate the development of charging networks with electricity grid planning.
Without systems to manage the load generated by electric vehicles, the study estimates that approximately €24.7 billion will need to be invested in grid reinforcement by 2030. With intelligent load management, this figure could be reduced to €14.1 billion, avoiding as much as €10.6 billion in investment.
The study’s findings indicate that electricity grid digitalisation, smart charging and coordinated planning of energy and charging infrastructure will play an increasingly important role in creating the conditions for the continued development of e-mobility in Europe.
Source: ACEA
Photo: AI
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