Analysis of the Passenger Car Market in the EU, the Region, and Serbia (2019-2024)
The automotive industry in Europe, as well as globally, is at a major crossroads. Sustainability, ecology, new technologies, and sensitive market fluctuations due to geopolitical upheavals present significant challenges for the auto industry. Besides directly employing a large number of people, it also has a substantial indirect impact on state budgets through customs, taxes, and connections with energy producers, equipment manufacturers, leasing companies, banks, and insurance companies.
The automotive industry, guided by regulatory measures, has charted a course toward environmentally friendly vehicles and "zero emissions" of CO2 and other greenhouse gases. It is one of the leading drivers of accelerated sustainable mobility, fundamentally changing people's daily lives.
The European automotive industry currently employs 12.9 million people and contributes €392.2 billion annually to the EU budget, generating 7% of the total GDP of the European Union.
New technologies, a clear direction toward "zero emissions," and the determination to build safer and better vehicles require significant investments in research and technological development. The EU auto industry spends €59.1 billion annually on research and development, which amounts to 31% of the EU's total investment in R&D across all industries.
As a result, the EU automotive industry contributes €101.9 billion to the EU's annual trade surplus.
From 2019 to 2024, over 60 million new passenger cars were sold in EU member states.
Given all these changes, the Serbian Association of Vehicle and Parts Importers has conducted an analysis of the passenger car market in the EU, the region, and Serbia for the period 2019-2024.
Decisions by the European Commission and the EU auto industry’s shift towards sustainable mobility have led to significant changes in the propulsion systems of newly registered passenger cars in the EU during this period. The gradual decline of diesel and gasoline-powered vehicles in favor of electric models, plug-in hybrids, and hybrids is clearly visible in the attached graph. The share of electric and hybrid vehicles has grown year by year. Gasoline-powered vehicles' share among newly registered cars in the EU dropped from 57.6% to 33% over five years (2019 to 2024), and diesel from 31.8% to only 11% in the same period. On the other hand, the share of fully electric vehicles rose from 2% to 14%, and hybrids from 6.6% to a striking 39%. Despite annual fluctuations and a temporary stall in electric car sales, the overall trend and the position taken by regulators and the EU auto industry is unmistakably clear.
A similar trend has been observed in the region over the past five years. In August 2024, fully electric vehicles accounted for 5% of new registrations in Slovenia, 6% in Croatia, 3% in Bulgaria, 5% in Romania, 6% in Greece, and 6% in Hungary. Hybrid vehicles made up 14% in Slovenia, 32% in Croatia, 5% in Bulgaria, 47% in Romania, 54% in Greece, and 56% in Hungary during the same period.
In Serbia, from January to September 2024, fully electric passenger cars accounted for 1%, and hybrids 30%, of newly registered vehicles. In 2019, only a few dozen electric vehicles and slightly more hybrids were sold in Serbia. Over the past five years, thanks to efforts by importers and government subsidies, the number of hybrid and fully electric passenger cars in the country has increased, despite their relatively small absolute numbers.
The number of new passenger car sales in Serbia shows a modest growth. Comparing the latest registration data from September this year with the same month in 2023, there was a 12.6% increase, with realistic projections that 2024 will return to pre-COVID levels. The EU market stagnated, with the number of new registrations increasing by only 0.4% (August 2023 to August 2024), still 30% lower than in the pre-COVID period (August 2019). Therefore, the return to pre-COVID conditions in Serbia, at least statistically, is much faster compared to the EU, but this is mainly due to the very low number of newly registered cars in Serbia compared to the EU.
Unfortunately, when it comes to the number of electric cars, Serbia ranks near the bottom, as it does in the number of public chargers per 100,000 inhabitants—a metric often used for comparisons. Serbia has only 3 public chargers per 100,000 inhabitants, compared to Norway's 538.
This is why the Serbian Association of New Vehicle and Parts Importers is continuously working to highlight the importance of developing and expanding the public charging network. Cooperation with relevant government bodies and institutions is progressing in the right direction, but it needs to be stronger and more comprehensive.
What concerns not only the Serbian Association but also the professional public, environmentalists, healthcare workers, and traffic safety authorities is the import of used cars (which has exceeded 130,000 annually for years), more than 50% of which meet Euro 3 and Euro 4 emission standards. The import of such used cars has been halted in all regional countries, while EU countries apply various measures to discourage the use of these vehicles (higher annual insurance, high environmental taxes, bans on driving in city centers, etc.). In Serbia, these vehicles make up over 50% of the total number of imported used cars annually.
The Serbian government's Air Protection Program, adopted in late 2022, stated that the import of used vehicles with Euro 3 and Euro 4 emission standards would be banned as of January 1, 2024, and those with Euro 5 standards from January 1, 2025. However, this measure has not yet been implemented.
The data clearly shows that despite temporary fluctuations in sales of environmentally friendly vehicles in Europe, there is no turning back from the path defined by EU regulators and the auto industry toward zero CO2 emissions. Whether this goal will be achieved exclusively through battery-electric propulsion or through alternatives such as hydrogen fuel cells (FCEVs) and others remains to be seen in the coming years or even decades. In Serbia, we must adapt to this reality in time—regulators, importers, buyers, and all other stakeholders—and work together on the transition to electric mobility as an inevitable fact.
Sources: ACEA, Cube Team